High-Speed Trains From L.A. to Las Vegas Feasible, Study Finds
High-speed train service between Las Vegas and Southern California is both technologically and economically feasible and environmentally safe, an 18-month, $1-million study for the City of Las Vegas has concluded.
Armed with these findings, supporters of the project that would whisk travelers across the desert at 250 to 300 m.p.h. hope to convince skeptical Southern Californians that the venture is a good idea.
“All of the studies came out positively,†Las Vegas City Manager Ashley Hall said in an interview. “We will hold intensive briefings in Nevada and Southern California in the next three or four weeks to share these findings.â€
Hall added: “Hopefully, we can get both states together in support of this futuristic transportation system, which we think will be of great benefit to both California and Nevada.â€
Almost two years ago, Las Vegas, working with a $1.25-million grant from the Federal Railroad Administration, began to study the feasibility of the rail project.
The city hired Robert E. Parsons, a rail specialist at the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, to coordinate the studies, which were done by outside consultants and which came to these conclusions:
- Assuming service by 1995 and a round-trip fare between Las Vegas and the proposed Southern California terminal in Ontario of $65, there would be 3.35 million passenger trips in the first year and more than 5 million by the year 2025.
- Either the West German magnetically levitated train, which floats one to four inches above a guideway and is propelled by a magnetic flow, or the French steel-wheeled high-speed train would be appropriate for this route. Japanese “mag-lev†trains, which were said to be five years behind those of West Germany in development, were ruled out.
- If the West German “mag-lev,†capable of achieving speeds of 250 to 300 m.p.h., is used, the cost of building the 230-mile line would be at least $2.5 billion, and the French train would cost at least $2 billion. A similar French train carries passengers between Paris and Lyon at speeds approaching 170 m.p.h., but an advanced, faster version has been proposed for the Nevada-California run.
- Once in operation, the train service would pay for itself quickly and become extremely profitable, but finding the money to build the line and to operate it for the first few years is a major obstacle.
- About 85% of the short-term economic benefits would be in California, where most of the construction would take place, but Nevada would realize 80% of the long-term benefits because of increased gambling and tourist revenue.
- If service were to begin in 1995, Las Vegas could expect $608 million in “new induced spending†that year, and new spending in Southern California would increase by $125 million--a 5-1 ratio favoring Nevada.
That finding explains why many Southern California officials are shying away from the project.
“Why should we encourage an activity that produces an outflow of $500 million a year to Las Vegas?†asked Wes McDaniel, executive director of the San Bernardino (County) Associated Governments.
“I see essentially no public benefit to Southern California,†said Jon Mikels, former mayor of Rancho Cucamonga and a newly elected member of the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors.
The county is preparing a formal analysis of the proposal, but Deborah Barmack, an analyst for the Board of Supervisors, said: “The fact that the main benefit is to Las Vegas, and not to Southern California, is a major obstacle.â€
There are also many questions about the complicated financing scheme that has been proposed by Robert J. Harmon & Associates of Washington.
In his report, Harmon said the high-speed train system could be built without much state or federal money. He suggested that construction and early operation should be financed by the government--France or West Germany--whose technology is selected.
“His logic is that this would be the first such corridor anywhere and the first company to get in there would get lots of other business,†Parsons said.
‘Just Scares Me’
But Parsons acknowledged that there are no assurances that either foreign government would be willing to invest $2 billion or more in building the line and that there is no good backup plan if France or West Germany prove unwilling.
The idea of depending on foreign money to build the line “just scares me to death,†Mayor Howard Snider of Ontario said.
McDaniel said the study, in concluding that 85% of the short-term economic benefits would accrue to California, assumed that at least half of the new train equipment would be built in this state. He questioned whether France or West Germany would be willing to put up the money to build the line and then allow the equipment to be made in California.
The rosy ridership projections submitted by Barton-Aschman Associates--3.3 million trips in the first year, more than five million by the year 2025--also have raised a few skeptical eyebrows among California transportation officials.
They point out that most ridership estimates--whether for a new railroad, a light rail line or a subway--turn out to have been exaggerated.
No German Train
The “mag-lev†technology is bothersome to some because the trains exist only on a test track in West Germany.
“If this is such a great system, why isn’t there one in Germany?†a San Bernardino County official asked.
Parsons said the main reason is that major West German cities are too close together to permit efficient operation of a super-speed train.
If the French train is used, Parsons said, it would be necessary to tunnel through the San Bernardino Mountains near Cajon Pass, because the train could not make the grade. It might also be necessary to circumvent a second grade near Baker, he said.
Parsons foresees no major environmental problems in the largely barren desert lands that lie between Las Vegas and Ontario, but increased traffic around the two terminals could create significant problems.
A final question that is not addressed in any of the consultants’ reports, but that is on the minds of many, is this: Does California want to offer further encouragement to people to go to Nevada to gamble?
‘Emotional Issue’
“This is a very emotional issue,†said Brent Hunter, executive vice president of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. “Las Vegas as a destination has something called gambling, and many people don’t like that.â€
These are some of the issues that will be discussed as Las Vegas supporters of the high-speed train try to sell Southern California officials on the idea.
There is already some support for the project in California.
“The whole thing looks more and more feasible to me,†said Hunter, whose organization sees the train as a boon to the Ontario economy.
“We think we would get enough visitors on one-day trips to fill our hotels on weekends,†he said. “If this train has anywhere near the success indicated by these reports, it will definitely put Ontario on the map.â€
If Southern California buys the idea, a two-state body probably will be established to find the $10 million needed to carry out preliminary engineering work and to search for a franchisee to build and operate the line.
“A few years ago, this looked like pie in the sky,†said Jim Gosnell, transportation director for the Southern California Assn. of Governments. “But now I think it’s a real possibility. There are a lot of questions still to be answered, and a lot to be done politically, but if Las Vegas wants to push this, I think they’ve got a reasonable chance of success.â€
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