Beirut War Mirrors Political Shifts : Reflects Palestinian Strength, Weakening of Syria’s Allies

NICOSIA, Cyprus —  With fighting continuing to swirl around three Palestinian refugee camps south of Beirut again Tuesday, Arab political analysts said the clashes reflect a strong new Palestinian presence in Lebanon and the apparent weakening of Syria’s allies.

According to the analysts and businessmen in Beirut, there is an increasingly intra-Muslim, sectarian tenor to the battles, which have been raging for three weeks around the Sabra, Chatilla and Borj el Brajne camps.

Also, the fighting may reflect a subtle shift in political alliances. Syria, the analysts say, appears to be slowly pulling away from its close relationship with Iran.

One unexpected result of the shifting alliances may be the creation of a new bond between the Palestine Liberation Organization, whose leader Yasser Arafat is at odds with Syrian President Hafez Assad, and the regime of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Tehran.

Iran Emissary Arrives

An Iranian emissary, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Besharati, arrived in Beirut after holding talks in Damascus with Assad aimed at bringing about a cease-fire in the camps.

After his arrival in Beirut, Besharati met with the leaders of the Shia Muslim and Sunni Muslim communities in Lebanon in an effort to control the fighting around the camps.

“The Islamic Republic strongly denounces the fighting,” said a statement Tuesday from the Iranian Embassy, “and calls for a final and firm cease-fire.”

The so-called “war of the camps” erupted last month when militiamen belonging to Amal, the mainstream Shia organization, attempted to wrest control of the three camps from the uneasy alliance of Palestinian groups that had quietly taken charge since similar fighting flared there last spring.

While the fighters of Amal, Syria’s closest ally in Lebanon, are Shia Muslim, most of the Palestinians are Sunni Muslim.

In what amounts to a stunning setback, Amal fighters have been unable to penetrate even within the outer perimeter of the camps, despite the deployment of Soviet-made tanks provided to Amal last year by the Syrians.

Artillery and Missiles

“The scale of fighting since May 22 shows the Palestinians are better equipped than ever,” said one Arab analyst. “They have artillery and anti-tank missiles.”

The fighting has been particularly vicious, with nearly 100 people killed. On Tuesday, according to news agency reports from Beirut, one person was killed and 14 were wounded in a morning of artillery and rocket exchanges at the beleaguered camps.

According to sources who visited the camps last week, there appeared to be little distinction between followers of Arafat, who are the most numerous in the camps, and members of rival groups in the PLO that are nominally loyal to Syria.

Khalil Wazir, the deputy military commander of the PLO, said in an interview with The Times last week that several thousand PLO fighters who left the country after the Israeli invasion in 1982 have returned to Lebanon and are being armed by the PLO for the defense of the camps.

There has been no independent confirmation of this, but clearly the Palestinians have stockpiled weapons in anticipation of a showdown with the Shias.

According to analysts in Beirut, the failure of Amal to make any inroads against the Palestinians has dealt a major blow to the prestige of Amal’s leader, Nabih Berri.

“The whole atmosphere has been poisoned,” a source in Beirut said Monday by telephone. “So far the Palestinians are holding out, and the political pressure is all on Amal. The fighters are asking themselves, ‘What’s the point of this war of the camps?’ ”

A factor in the outbreak of the fighting was Berri’s refusal to accept a proposal from the Palestinian groups allied with Syria, formally known as the Palestine National Salvation Front, to assume responsibility for security in the camps. Berri is now in Damascus meeting with Syrian officials in an effort to arrange a lasting cease-fire.

Four Years of Exile

There has been considerable speculation in Beirut and abroad that the fighting in Beirut may be the beginning of an effort by the PLO to reassert itself in Lebanon four years after being expelled by the Israelis. Arafat is said to be concerned that the recent reconciliation between Jordan and Syria, and the likelihood of improvement in relations between Iraq and Syria, could serve to reduce the PLO’s mobility.

Also, Arafat is said to fear that Syria and Jordan, whose King Hussein broke with Arafat in February, may be hoping to unseat him.

Last week, Berri’s fighters crushed a small Sunni Muslim militia group known as the February Six Movement, which existed outside the camps in West Beirut. This had the effect of uniting the ranks of Sunnis, Beirut’s traditionally powerful mercantile class, in common cause with the Palestinians. And it deepened the antagonism between the Sunnis and the Shias.

An irony of the conflict is that Berri’s Amal is considered more of a secular organization than the radical Hezbollah (Party of God), which is close to Iran. So far, Hezbollah has opposed the war of the camps and the fighting between Shia and Muslim groups.

The recent moves by Syria to reconcile with Iraq have also fueled speculation that Syria would attempt to crack down on radical fundamentalist groups such as Hezbollah, now that relations are cooling with Iran.

There is evidence, particularly in southern Lebanon, that Hezbollah presents a serious challenge to Amal’s strength. An alliance between the PLO and the Muslim fundamentalists tied to Iran would confront Syria with a formidable enemy.