THE BIG DEAL : If Record Execs Could Get Any Artist They Wanted, Here’s Who They’d Take

What if . . . all record contracts were voided?

And, what if . . . as president of a record label, you had first chance to sign anyone--just like the pro basketball draft?

Who would you bet your money on?

Bruce Springsteen? Or Michael Jackson or Prince or Madonna or Barbra Streisand? David Bowie, Wham!? Willie Nelson?

One record executive said he certainly wouldn’t wager on Jackson.

“He’s too unpredictable at this stage,� he insisted. “I don’t know if he even still wants to be a music act. He may go into movies or the theater. Besides, the public may have had enough of him. He hurt himself a lot with that (“Victory�) tour. I wouldn’t risk my future on him.�

Countered a rival executive: “Wait a second! You can talk all you want about backlash and movies and . . . the sky falling. This guy sold more records (with “Thriller�) than anyone in history . . . 40 million copies or whatever. How can you not go with him again?

“If you sign him and he goes into the tank, people will say ‘Too bad’ and sympathize with you. But if you don’t sign him and he sells another 40 million, you’re the biggest jerk in the history of the business. You’ve got to go with him and hope the magic is still there.�

Calendar selected 20 people from all facets of the record business (see adjoining box) to tell us who’s hot and who’s not. We asked people who sign acts. People who promote records. Plus experts in video, publishing and talent-booking.

Their challenge: If every contract were declared null and void and you could sign any act you wanted to a standard seven-year contract, who would you take first? Forget artistry; think sales.

Several of the panel members were nervous about commenting publicly on their own artists, so we agreed not to tie any quote to a particular person. Even that wasn’t always anonymity enough.

One high-ranking (and quick-thinking) executive from a New York label wanted to be on the panel--but balked at plans to publish the number of first-place votes for each artist.

He explained: “Don’t you see? I’ve got two big acts and if they don’t both get at least one first-place vote, they’ll know I didn’t vote for them.

“Sorry, but I don’t want any part of that. You know how these artists can be.�

I mentioned that conversation to someone who did participate in the survey. He didn’t laugh: “I could be in the same kind of trouble.�

So, we compromised. First-place votes are listed only for artists who received at least three. That’s extra protection for our voters.

After compiling all the votes, I asked a key rock manager in town to put a dollar figure on the contract the poll winner would be able to pull. His estimate: $50 million, based on a $10-million guarantee for five albums.

And who is the hottest artist?

Springsteen . . . by a landslide.

Springsteen piled up 154 points in a system that awards 10 points for every first-place mention, nine for every second-place mention and so forth. Only one exec failed to include Springsteen in the Top 10. Six listed him first.

Prince finished a distant second with 103 points, followed by Jackson (81) and Lionel Richie (77).

The rest of the Top 10: U2, Bryan Adams, Talking Heads, Sting, Eurythmics and Stevie Wonder.

These newcomers, all in the Top 20, turned in better-than-expected showings: Whitney Houston, Wham!, Lone Justice and Julian Lennon.

Established acts out of the Top 20 include Diana Ross, Neil Diamond, Paul McCartney, Kenny Rogers, Elton John, Rick James and the Rolling Stones.

“It’s easy to just look at today’s charts and predict that today’s Top 10 will be tomorrow’s Top 10, but that’s not the way it usually works,� said one survey member.

“Think back seven years. Who were the big sellers? The Bee Gees, Rod Stewart, the Eagles, Fleetwood Mac, Styx, Paul McCartney, Billy Joel, Bob Seger, Linda Ronstadt, Kenny Rogers. Where are most of them today? You’ve got to look for those artists who are right on the verge of exploding commercially. They’re the ones whose momentum will carry them for seven years.�

In fact, one panelist said Springsteen, Prince, Jackson and Richie are probably bad choices. “I’d probably take one of them, but you’ve got to look to the future. A band like U2 today is where Bruce was seven years ago--ready to sell millions of records.�

When it comes to Springsteen, you’re not going to find much controversy. Even the panelist who didn’t include him in the Top 10 had good things to say: “Like a lot of other big names today, Bruce is overexposed. That doesn’t diminish his talent, but it may cause some sales resistence in the future.�

But mostly, Springsteen drew raves.

“He’s one superstar today who doesn’t seem to have burnout problems,� one executive said. “As long as he continues to be the artist who digs deepest into himself, he’ll be way up there. He has shifted the whole tone of rock by reviving the idea of good guy.�

Echoed another: “Bruce showed that people really do want heroes, and he has lived up to that responsibility well.�

Other views:

“He’s so respected that he’ll mean more for your label than sales. He also brings ultimate prestige. New bands would want to go with you just because he’s there.�

“Usually, you start to turn off on a guy when nobody has anything but good words about him, but that hasn’t happened with Bruce. Somehow that respect works in Bruce’s favor. You find yourself pulling for him. Maybe we just want to see the good guys win once in a while.�

Not all of the survey remarks were so agreeable. When it came to Prince and Michael Jackson, sparks flew.

Prince’s abilities are widely admired, but several panel members worried about an “attitude� or “image� problem. Others were concerned about burnout. (Panelists were interviewed separately, but other opinions were bounced off them.)

Summarized one exec: “Prince tends to be his own worst enemy with his arrogance, but he may also just be this generation’s Stevie Wonder. How high I’d pick him depended on how strong I felt the day of the draft. If I wanted a challenge, I’d go for him. If I wanted to enjoy life the next seven years, I I’d go with Bruce or Lionel.�

Another panelist agreed that Prince would be a headache: “You learn to put up with all kinds of characters in this business, but you want someone to build your company around that you have faith in--and my feeling about Prince is that he’s not someone who is fun to work with.�

A third panelist downgraded Prince for other reasons. “My worry is the public’s view of him. I think he comes across as too strange, and people don’t keep buying records of people they don’t like. Besides, there have been too many Prince clones. The public may be tired of his sound by the time of another album.�

However, there was still tremendous support:

“He’s such a great record producer that he is going to be a big force in this business for years, whether he chooses to devote most of his time to his own records or whether he chooses to work with other artists.�

“I don’t think he’ll fall prey to any backlash. He’s eager, creative . . . a pioneer instead of a follower. He doesn’t reflect taste, he creates it.�

“Sure, there is a burnout danger, but his talent is so overwhelming that he’ll stretch out and take his audience with him. I think he’ll come out with another revolutionary album. He’d also bring an enormous excitement to your company.�

“I think he’s worth the risks. Along with Springsteen, he is the most talented writer we have today. He’ll continue to make original statements. Some may not sell as well as others, but enough of them will connect to make him your best bet.�

Michael Jackson’s artistry and potential was often pitted against the concerns about his other career interests and the backlash from last year’s “Victory� tour.

“The biggest question is his image, not his music,� one panelist said. “If this Disney (short film) comes off, Michael is set to springboard again. But I’ve got this vague feeling that some of the magic is gone. He looks like he has peaked.�

Another panelist who left Jackson off the Top 10 speculated: “He may be the most talented record maker and performer of our time, but he may have lost some of his older fans because they were turned off by all the hype, and lost some younger fans because they want new heroes. Remember, talent alone isn’t enough in this business.�

Agreed a panelist who also left Jackson off his Top 10: “He’s one of the greatest talents ever, but he’s too much of a question to pick. He doesn’t need another hit album. And what if he just throws something together like the last one he did with the Jacksons?�

Among his backers:

“Michael lives and breathes music. He’ll fight back--and probably win. He’s so obsessed with being remembered in history and obsessed with achievements that he won’t allow himself to let down.�

“You don’t give up--for any reason--on the guy who just had the biggest record of all time. People have been saying Michael was through ever since he was 13. . . . Who ever figured he’d still be around after the third Jackson 5 record?�

“Forget backlash. Michael is one of the only artists who keeps current and listens all the time to the radio. If you only get two albums over the next seven years, they’ll sell 10 million copies each--even if they are stiffs.�

Executives like Lionel Richie, though several find his music too soft.

Typical support: “Everybody likes Lionel, which is an important factor is a business that is so dependent on getting your records on the radio. . . . He’s also got a great instinct for what works and he’ll grow as challenges arise.�

Another: “He is the most solid artist in the business today. He’s steady, reliable, tours regularly and works with his record company to promote the records. He’s self-motivated . . . the ideal artist from a record-label point of view.�

Less favorable: “He may be more business-oriented than music-oriented and that scares me a little�; “He’s the master of being all things to all people and that kind of thing doesn’t last. People get tired of you. The lowest common pop denominator.�

This criticism was passed on to another panelist, who noted: “They sound like frustrated critics. We’re talking records here. You want an artist with wide appeal. I think Lionel’s just hitting the tip of the iceberg. He’s going to be one of the fixtures of the industry for the next decade.

Ireland’s idealistic U2 gained the most support among the “newcomers�--sixth, with six Top 5 mentions and nine Top 10 ratings. Detractors simply don’t see them as matching the sales figures of competitors, but several panelists spoke passionately of them.

“There is a little bit of that Springsteenian devotion building around this band,� one suggested. “You already see a lot of bands patterning themselves after them. I think they are going to be important for years to come.�

Aside from a “too bombastic for my taste� remark, comments ranged from “best live band in the world� to “I love that they take chances.�

As with Talking Heads (later), I reminded some enthusiastic panelists that we were talking sales here, not personal musical tastes.

“Absolutely,� replied one executive. “This band is going to sell records. One more big single and watch out: There’s a climate in the country now for a band that is social and political and still musical and exciting, and that’s the definition of this band. I don’t think the group has even come close to its peak.�

Canada’s Bryan Adams drew surprisingly strong support. Though a big seller (his latest album is multi-platinum), he has a relatively low industry profile. Everyone acknowledged his sales, but some doubt the level of artistry.

One backer: “Incredibly skillful songwriter. Most critics would dismiss him for not saying anything in his songs, but he’s obviously communicating. He’s also young and tours constantly, and those are both big advantages.�

Another supporter: “A great songwriter, singer and performer. I think he is still growing and will be able to come up with the material that will make people think of him as more than just another Springsteen or John Cougar Mellencamp.�

But some panelists didn’t buy it. “His songs are real commercial, but there’s a trace of formula to them,� one said. “I don’t see him growing.� Snapped someone else, “He’s just a second-level Springsteen.�

Another panelist, who included Adams in the Top 10, struck a middle ground. “He’s not the best at anything--singing, writing, performing. But he knows what works and he weaves it all together into a strong package. I’m big on motivation and I think he still wants it (success) real bad.�

The artistry of Talking Heads is much admired by everyone, but several doubted the quartet will ever sell enough to justify a Top 10 pick. Warned one panelist, “I think people who are picking them high are going by their taste rather than their sales figures.�

Still, support was considerable. “Very strong band,� said one. “(Leader David) Byrne is a genius. They have been a little too far in front of the record buying public, but I think the movie (‘Stop Making Sense’) has helped people catch up.�

The view was frequently seconded: “Byrne has the ability to go on for years and continue to break ground. As we get back into the integrity of songs, Byrne is going to become more and more important to the younger generation. They are listening for meaning again in songs, and they’ll find it in his music.�

Sting would be rated higher than eighth except that many executives are worried about him devoting too much time to movies or his jazz interests. (In the survey, Sting and his band, the Police, were listed as separate entries.)

One panelist also found Sting’s personality cold. “He’s an outstanding musician, but his personality may eventually do him in. His aloofness isn’t as severe as Prince’s, but it could be much warmer. The public has to be able to relate to you on some level.�

Another detractor: “He’s definitely at a crossroads and you don’t have the luxury (in this draft) of waiting to see where he is going. I’d pass unless I got him as a very low pick. What if he decides to make an all-out jazz record?�

Sting’s backers feel the Englishman’s competitive instincts make him a safe bet. “He won’t forget about music,� one said. “Sting wants it all--film, records, acclaim. And he’s smart enough to deliver. You don’t have to worry about him flaking out on you.�

Other reactions:

“I like the fact that he had the courage to go from rock to something jazzy. The next album will proably be different again. People may be confused by his image, but I think he is one of the real artists of pop.�

“He has been on top with the Police. I think he will be there as a solo artist. He has the talent and the will.�

� I’d love to get him. He’s multitalented . . . a great artist who has great presence in films, the stage and on record. He’s ideal for this new video-film age in music.�

Eurythmics, the British rock duo of singer Annie Lennox and guitarist Dave Stewart, finished ninth even though many voters are concerned the two artists may go their separate ways.

“A very exciting and dynamic group that has not yet begun to hit its potential as record sellers,� one panelist said. “I’d sign them and hope they do break up. Then I’d have two acts. Stewart works well with people and he would come up with something interesting, and Lennox may be the biggest star of all in the ‘80s. She’s a great singer and has a provocative image.�

Another panelist was put off by the possibility of a break-up: “I like them very much, but I can’t see them sticking together and you never know what’s going to happen to the individual members if a group breaks up. Sometimes there is a chemistry that is lost that they can’t get back together.�

A dissenter: “I find them very uneven, and I bet their sales aren’t nearly as high as their high profile suggests. They are also quirky enough to race off in some exotic, non-commercial direction.�

Stevie Wonder’s low finish (10th) is the biggest surprise, given his respect in the industry and proven sales record. He was left off 14 ballots.

Explained one voter who was cool toward Wonder, “I think he’s at the stage in his career where he is just dabbling with music. It’s no longer his obsession. Play his latest album alongside ‘Songs in the Key of Life’ and tell me you see the same intensity.�

Another: “If you did this survey around ‘Songs in the Key of Life,’ Stevie would have been No. 1 on my ballot and on probably every other ballot. He is the creative force of our business. Half of the music today was influenced by Stevie and Motown. The question is consistency. When he is there 100%, there’s nobody better, but you don’t know when he’ll come up with his next album.�

One panelist added Wonder to his Top 10 after I pointed out the singer-composer’s absence: “How could I have left him off? Maybe we just take him for granted. The only thing against him is his longevity. Sooner or later, the well has got to go dry. But I’ll stick with him for now. Aren’t he and Springsteen about the same age?�

Another panelist who included Wonder in the Top 5: “He may not be as hot as he was a decade ago, but I’d still want him. Crosses every musical boundary and is totally respected.�

Passions didn’t run as strongly about the second 10 artists--except in the case of some highly prized newcomers (chiefly Whitney Houston, Wham! and Lone Justice) and warily eyed best sellers (David Bowie and Madonna).

Whitney Houston, who finished 11th by polling eight Top 10 mentions, was considered a good bet by almost everyone--though some felt it was premature to put her in the Top 10 on the basis of one album, even if it’s sold 2 million copies.

“She is the ideal artist to sign in a draft like this because she’s just beginning,� a booster said. “People are curious. They want to know what she is going to do next. They aren’t tired of her the way they are with several of the people that you could pick.�

Further support: “The potential is amazing�; “She’s young, attractive--possibly the pop diva of the ‘80s�; “She may just grow into the next great lady of soul.�

Dissent: “I’m not sure there is enough depth there for a long career. She doesn’t write her own songs and the ones she picked on the first album weren’t good.�

With both Wham! and Lone Justice, interest centered around individuals: George Michael and Maria McKee, respectively. Though Wham! has largely teenybop appeal at present, Michael has the talent and ambition to grow, supporters feel. McKee is widely admired as a country and rock singer and two panelists had enough faith in her to put her in their Top 5 even though Lone Justice’s debut album was far from gold.

On Wham!, which finished 16th with three Top 5 votes:

“Michael has the energy, the youth, the voice, the drive. I can’t see him being denied.�

“He may have a teenybop audience now, but he’ll be able to grow beyond that. He’s smart enough to find what he’s going to need to move to the next level and he’ll do it.�

“I don’t care what age their fans are, they have hit after hit and they are just babies in this business. I’d put him on my Top 10.�

The only problems cited by Lone Justice supporters were lead singer McKee’s youth and, strangely, religion.

“It’s controversial to say this, but she’s such a devout Christian that it may prevent her from making certain types of records that kids want to hear,� one panelist said. “It may limit her themes.�

On her youth: “She’s so young (21) that she be overwhelmed by all the attention she’s getting. Aside from that, she’s an absolute treasure.�

Raves:

“An amazing singer and looks great on stage. She’s going to develop as a writer . . . and be a superstar.�

“Unbelievable singer. You only get a chance to sign someone this young and this good once or twice a decade.�

David Bowie received only enough Top 10 support (four votes) to finish 18th--a surprise considering his long, influential career and the enormous success of “Serious Moonlight� tour in 1983.

“He’s just not committed to the music business,� said one participant. “He may spend three years making movies and then come back with a terrible album. There’s no consistency there. Do you even remember his last album?�

Agreed another: “For one thing, he has never sold as many records as superstardom would suggest. He’s also too inconsistent image-wise. By the time the public is ready to embrace that image, he’s bored with it. That works against him commercially.�

But a Bowie booster countered: “Sure, he’s erratic. But he turns out brilliant music when he sets his mind to it. He’s also a great innovator and live performer.�

Agreed another: “I think he realizes time is running out for him. He’s nearly 40 and knows he only has so much time left as a major seller and he wants to maximize it. Besides, video was made for him.�

Everyone had something to say about Madonna, but only three voters put her in their Top 10.

“I’m not sure how much depth there is and you need depth to keep growing in the business these days,� said one who remains unimpressed by her string of hits. “She may also be more interested in making movies.�

Her biggest supporter returned: “I don’t care if she makes 50 movies, there’ll probably be music in half of them--and she’s never going to give up records. She’s got talent and a vision of where she’s going. She’s her own best marketing agent.�

Another booster: “She’s also a great personality . . . a throwback to the old ‘50s pop music sound of ladies I love. If she is handled properly and is given the right songs, she’ll keep happening. Her future may really be in films, but for seven years she’ll be fine for any company.�

Typical of the doubters:

“You’ve always got to be wary of performers who are tied too closely to a given year and a given trend. And Madonna is someone with 1985 stamped on her forehead.�

“Too much fashion and image for my tastes.�

“I respect what she did this year. It was a stunning campaign, but I don’t see her as nearly as talented as Cyndi Lauper.�

Many panelists had second thoughts. Two days after casting his ballot, one exec asked if he could change his vote. He argued originally against putting Michael Jackson in the Top 10 because of the uncertainly of when Jackson’s next LP would be released. “It might be another four years, like with ‘Thriller.’ � But he had heard that Jackson plans to have an album out by April. “He’s got to be No. 1.�

Another had seen Whitney Houston’s concert and was disappointed. “I’m not sure she has any idea what to do with her talent,� he said. “I’d rather restrict my Top 10 to artists who have a strong sense of their own identity.�

A final panelist wanted to move U2 up into his Top 10 and Wham! out of it.

“The great thing about this business is that you can try to strike a balance between your tastes and the bottom line,� he said. “I just love U2 so I’ll willing to take a chance on them.�

About dropping Wham!, he said, “I just wouldn’t want to go back to the office after a real draft, have everyone waiting around breathlessly for the name of who we’re going to spend the next seven years working with, and have to say, ‘Wham!’ I can just hear the groans.�

Even the manager who came up with the $50-million estimate on the value of the No. 1 pick’s contract called back. “You know that figure I gave you was kind of simplistic,� he said, returning the focus to the question of money.

“Putting together a contract for anyone who was really the No. 1 pick of the industry would give you the opportunity to be incredibly creative. I would go for guarantee versus what would amount to a joint venture with the record company, so that we would actually share the profits after a certain point. And I’d also make sure the artist retained control of his or her masters, and I’d demand. . . .�

THE PANEL OF POP PICKERS

The Calendar survey panel: Ken Barnes, senior v.p. and editor, Radio & Records magazine.

Bill Bennett, v.p. of album promotion, Epic Records.

Karin Berg, director of East Coast A&R;, Warner Bros. Records.

Jo Bergman, v.p. video, Warner Bros. Records.

Michael Brokaw, senior v.p., Ken Kragen & Assoc.

Glen Brunman, director West Coast media relations/video, Epic Records.

Jheryl Busby, senior v.p. black music, MCA Records.

Harold Childs, president, Qwest Records.

Jamie Cohen, director of A&R;, Arista Records.

Wayne Edwards, v.p. black A&R;, Capitol Records.

Gregg Geller, division v.p. A&R;, RCA Records.

John Kalodner, A&R;, Geffen Records.

Skip Miller, senior v.p. marketing, Motown Records.

Charlie Minor, senior v.p. promotion, A&M; Records.

Ron Oberman, v.p. A&R;, Columbia Records.

Peter Philbin, West Coast v.p. A&R;, Elektra Records.

Barbara Skydel, executive v.p., Premier Talent.

Larry Solters, senior v.p. artist development, MCA Records.

Russ Thyret, senior v.p. marketing and promotion, Warner Bros. Records.

Tom Vickers, professional manager for Almo Irving, publishing arm of A&M.;

THE TOP POP SCORERS

Total 1st Place Top 10 Points Votes Votes 1. Bruce Springsteen 154 6 19 2. Prince 103 4 15 3. Michael Jackson 81 3 12 4. Lionel Richie 77 3 10 5. U2 63 * 9 6. Bryan Adams 47 * 8 7. Talking Heads 45 * 8 8. Sting 44 * 9 9. Eurythmics 34 * 6 10. Stevie Wonder 33 * 9 11. Whitney Houston 27 * 8 12. ZZ Top 28 * 5 13. Dire Straits 27 * 5 14. Phil Collins 24 * 4 14. Don Henley (tie) 24 * 5 16. Wham! 23 * 5 17. Lone Justice 22 * 4 18. David Bowie 20 * 4 19. Julian Lennon 19 * 3 20. Madonna 18 * 3

* denotes fewer than 3 first-place votes. The point system: 10 points for every first-place mention, 9 for every second-place mention, etc.