Opinion: New Iowa poll: Romney, Clinton lead, Rudy a poor fourth

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Some interesting results from the first Rasmussen Reports poll out of Iowa today:

Mitt Romney still leads the Republican field by six points (25%) while Hillary Clinton leads her Democratic competitors (33%) by nearly twice as much, 11 points.

But there’s a statistical tie for second place in both party’s likely caucus-goers. Fred Thompson (19%) and Mike Huckabee (18%) are tied for the GOP while John Edwards (22%) and Barack Obama (21%) are close among Democrats. The Democratic race has long been close, but the growth of Huckabee’s support is more surprising, although his fundraising has not matched it.

Among the 650 Republicans polled, national GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani is trailing badly among Iowans at 13%, John McCain even worse at 6%, Sam Brownback (3%), Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul both at 2% and California’s Duncan Hunter last at 1%.

Among the 1,007 likely Democrat caucus-goers polled, Bill Richardson is at 7%, Joe Biden at 4%. As other polls have shown, Clinton is strongest among women (39%). Her advantage among men is much smaller, 28% to Edwards’ 24%. Obama does best among those with higher education and higher incomes, while Clinton is strongest among those earning less than $40,000. Fifty-nine percent of Clinton supporters say they’re certain to vote for her, 51% for Edwards and 48% for Obama.

Eighty-nine percent of Democrats believe they will win the White House in 2008. Among GOP members, only 51% believe they will win.

In favorable-unfavorable ratings, Romney also leads Republicans, 76-22, while Thompson is close at 73-23. Huckabee is 64-30, Giuliani 68-30 and McCain is 53-45.

--Andrew Malcolm