Can David Gregory keep ‘Meet the Press’ on top?

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Now that it actually does look like David Gregory will be tapped as the moderator of NBC’s ‘Meet the Press’ -- TV’s longest-running program -- it’s natural to wonder how the change might affect the relative rankings of the four major Sunday public-affairs shows.

The late Tim Russert had helped build ‘Meet the Press’ into a Beltway powerhouse, and that hasn’t changed since his death in June. The program has kept its No. 1 status even with former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw as a stand-in. Season to date, ‘Meet the Press’ has averaged 4.5 million total viewers, up 32% compared with last year, according to Nielsen Media Research.

In fact, all of the Sunday news programs are up by double digits this fall, no doubt because of sustained viewer interest in the presidential election and the first moves made by President-elect Barack Obama. ‘Meet the Press,’ in particular, has benefited from some big newsmaking interviews, particularly Brokaw’s pre-election sitdown with Colin Powell, who endorsed Obama and sharply criticized the Republican ticket. And the rankings haven’t really budged: ABC’s ‘This Week’ remains a solid runner-up, averaging 3.4 million viewers, trailed by CBS’ ‘Face the Nation’ (3.1 million) and Fox News’ ‘Fox News Sunday’ (1.5 million).

Ratings for news programs tend to evolve slowly compared with those of entertainment shows, and times of transition are often when the glaciers begin their drift (doubt it? Then look at the ratings for the ‘CBS Evening News’ in the 1980s after Walter Cronkite left and Dan Rather took over, for example).

So what does that mean? Well, Sunday-morning viewers -- who tend to be a demanding and well-informed lot -- will decide, probably within a year, whether Gregory can butter their toast. If not, ‘Meet the Press’ has a long way to fall. But the good news for him and for NBC News is that Russert left his successors one heck of a cushion.

-- Scott Collins