Poll: 49% would advise their Congress member to vote against healthcare bill

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The Senate’s post-Thanksgiving debate over healthcare reform gets underway this week against a backdrop of apparent deep public division and slight disapproval.

With the Senate poised to take up a healthcare overhaul that the Democrats and independent allies have voted to advance to debate and that the Republicans have voted to block, a Gallup poll today reports that 49% of Americans surveyed say they would advise their member of Congress to vote against a bill and 44% say they would recommend a vote for it.

The findings represent a turnaround since early October, when Gallup found that 51% of those surveyed favored a vote for a healthcare bill and 41% said they opposed it.

The latest findings come from a survey conducted Nov. 20-22 by Gallup and USA Today as the Senate was acting to advance the bill to debate. They reflect little change in attitude since earlier this month, after the House adopted its own version of a healthcare overhaul offering insurance coverage to most of the uninsured and promising better coverage for those with insurance.

Independent voters are displaying a marked disapproval for a bill now. But ‘support among all three party groups has declined since the early October high, falling by six points among Democrats, eight among independents and 12 among Republicans,’’ Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones said.

Since the debate got underway this year, with President Obama pressing for action on healthcare by the year’s end, Gallup’s surveys have never found ‘a strong public mandate in favor of passing a law this year,’’ Jones noted. That October measure of 51% public support for a bill marked the high point in Gallup’s polling.

Yet opinion is ‘ far from settled,’’ Jones said.

‘When initially asked about their preferred course of action on healthcare legislation, 22% of Americans say they do not yet have an opinion on the matter (although 15% subsequently provide an opinion when asked if they lean one way or the other). The percentage with no opinion on the initial question has fluctuated since August, but has never been lower than the current 22% figure. ‘Because those who initially express no opinion divide fairly evenly between support and opposition when probed for their leaning, the trend on the initial question has been similar to the trend shown at the beginning of the article that combines initial preferences and leanings.’’

Republicans on Capitol Hill apparently are voting the way most members of their party suggest: 86% of those surveyed advising against a vote for a bill. Democrats, by contrast, support a vote by 76%. Independents oppose it, by 53% to 37%.

The president’s own approval rating on healthcare reform has slipped, with just 40% of those surveyed in the latest poll saying they approve of Obama’s handling of healthcare policy.

‘Despite the considerable efforts of Congress and the president to pass health insurance reform, the public remains reluctant to endorse that goal,’’ Gallup’s Jones wrote. ‘The recent trend has been in the opposite direction, with opposition growing.’’

The latest survey of 1,017 adults carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points

-- Mark Silva