Golden Globes: We predict Sunday’s TV winners

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Yes, the Hollywood Foreign Assn. Press consigns its Golden Globe television nominees to the back of the Beverly Hilton Hotel ballroom, which means less camera time and a greatly diminished chance at getting water glasses refilled. But there’s one consolation: Host Ricky Gervais probably will ignore them too. The Globes have a long history of beating the Emmys to the punch when it comes to rewarding new shows. (Unless it’s AMC’s ‘Breaking Bad.’ You’d think this bunch could relate to a show about desperation.) This year, look for ‘Homeland’ and ‘New Girl’ to break out, unless the HFPA decides to really let its freak flag fly and go with ‘American Horror Show.’

Following Thursday’s movie predictions, here are our picks for the TV side:

TELEVISION SERIES DRAMA

The nominees: “American Horror Story,” “Boardwalk Empire,” “Boss,” “Game of Thrones,” “Homeland”

The winner is … “Mad Men” ran the table for its first three seasons before “Boardwalk Empire” ended that streak last year. Now “Boardwalk” faces off against four first-year series. Among them, we’re guessing Showtime’s topical thriller “Homeland” has enough heat to knock off ‘Boardwalk.’

Unless … All the freshman series divide voters and “Boardwalk” wins for a second season that rivaled its debut year in quality.

LEAD ACTOR TV DRAMA

The nominees: Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”; Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”; Kelsey Grammer, “Boss”; Jeremy Irons, “The Borgias”; Damian Lewis, “Homeland”

The winner is … Cranston has never lost an Emmy in this category, but has never won a Globe. (And this is only his second nomination.) We suspect that the HFPA doesn’t want to play catch-up and goes with the Brit, Lewis, who was Globe-nominated a decade ago for “Band of Brothers.”

Unless … Voters been jonesing to give eight-time nominee and two-time winner Grammer an award since “Frasier” ended its run.

LEAD ACTRESS TV DRAMA

The nominees: Claire Danes, “Homeland”; Mireille Enos, “The Killing”; Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”; Madeline Stowe, “Revenge”; Callie Thorne, “Necessary Roughness”

The winner is … Danes. She’s an HFPA favorite, having won twice, including a victory last year for “Temple Grandin.”

Unless … Voters go back to 2009 winner Margulies or didn’t hate the Season 1 finale of “The Killing” as much as we did.

TELEVISION SERIES COMEDY OR MUSICAL

The nominees: “Enlightened,” “Episodes,” “Glee,” “Modern Family,” “New Girl”

The winner is … “Modern Family” seems poised to end “Glee’s” two-year run.

Unless … Voters side with the ambitiously layered “Enlightened,” easily the best of this season’s new comedies.

LEAD ACTOR TV COMEDY OR MUSICAL

The nominees: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”; David Duchovny, “Californication”; Johnny Galecki, “The Big Bang Theory”; Thomas Jane, “Hung”; Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”

The winner is … An odd bunch. Last year’s winner, Jim Parsons, is out, replaced by “Big Bang” co-star Galecki. No Steve Carell for his fantastic last season of “The Office”, or Louis CK, but Duchovny … again? Really? Baldwin has already won three times; HBO just canceled Jane’s show. And “Big Bang” isn’t nominated for comedy. That leaves … LeBlanc? (Really?)

Unless … They’d like to give Jane, a nominee for all three seasons of “Hung,” a nice parting gift.

LEAD ACTRESS TV COMEDY OR MUSICAL

The nominees: Laura Dern, “Enlightened”; Zooey Deschanel, “The New Girl”; Tina Fey, “30 Rock”; Laura Linney, “The Big C”; Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

The winner is … Deschanel.

Unless … Too many HFPA members overdosed on all the good cheer found in Deschanel’s “She & Him” Christmas album. Then, look to past winner Dern or Poehler.

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-- Glenn Whipp

Whipp writes the Gold Standard awards column for The Envelope.